Like with self driving cars everyone expected linear progress between first Tesla with let’s say advanced cruise control and self parking to fully self driving cars. For detecting progress function we need to understand what is 100% done for self driving, but no one knows it.

Exactly the same situation with AI - there is no 100%, no one knows what must be developed each year to show x2 progress compared to previous year. Or even 10% progress. It is not store checklist where you know exactly whole list and can track the progress.